Bitcoin Is Now Officially In Its Longest Bear Market Ever

Bitcoin has formally entered the longest stretch of declining costs in its 10-year historical past.

The world’s oldest and most precious cryptocurrency achieved an all-time excessive of $19,764 on Dec. 17, 2017 on the CoinDesk Bitcoin Value Index and has printed a sequence of cheaper price highs ever since, making February 2 (as per UTC time), the 411th consecutive day costs have been in decline. 

As such, bitcoin’s newest stretch surpasses the period of the notorious 2013-2015 bitcoin bear market, which spanned 410 days from its worth excessive to low.

Bitcoin’s Historic Value Declines

Certainly, bitcoin’s most up-to-date stretch of declining costs is the longest in period ever witnessed by the cryptocurrency, nevertheless it has but to develop into the worst when it comes to complete depreciation.

As could be seen within the chart above, bitcoin’s first important bear market in 2011 spanned simply 163 days however stays the worst performer to this point.

From its worth excessive of $31.50 to $2.01 low, bitcoin’s worth fell barely greater than 93 p.c, which is a steeper drop than the next 2013-15 bear market when costs fell 86 p.c from the earlier excessive. The present bear market nonetheless has but to exceed a depreciation of greater than 84 p.c from its all-time excessive, whereas its present costs close to $three,400 register an 82 p.c decline.

Nobody could be sure if or when bitcoin’s report decline will come to an finish, however whether or not it’s the market’s subdued response to the withdrawal of a extremely anticipated bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) proposal or bitcoin’s subsequent deflationary halving occasion slowly approaching, it does appear proof is starting to mount for a bitcoin backside occurring within the not too distant future.

Weekly chart and halving historical past

As a part of bitcoin’s deflationary financial coverage, the rewards per mined block get reduce in half each 4 years or 210,000 blocks, in consequence slowing the creation of latest bitcoins.

The occasion is now referred to as a “halving” and has lengthy been thought of a bullish catalyst for bitcoin’s worth because the present or rising demand for the cryptocurrency is more likely to outweigh the slowing manufacturing of provide. Merely put, since demand is larger than provide, it creates a better valuation for the underlying asset, whatever the market.

Because the tweet under from CoinDesk Markets reveals, bitcoin’s worth development tends to backside out and rise considerably a number of months upfront of the particular halving date.

Whereas the pattern dimension is small, bitcoin’s worth discovering a ground 378 days earlier than the 2012 halving and 539 days earlier than the 2016 halving creates a mean “backside” date of 458 days or one-and-a-quarter years earlier than an precise halving occasion.

With the following halving more likely to happen in late Might of 2020, bitcoin is now just below 500 days away, so a possible bear market ending backside date is probably not too far off if traders preemptively worth within the deflation of provide like they’ve previously.

Disclosure: The writer holds BTC, AST, REQ, OMG, FUEL, ZIL, 1st and AMP on the time of writing.

Injured bear picture by way of Shutterstock; Charts by Tradingview.com

About Tom Greenly

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